And the prospects of forming an anti-Turkish alliance
Summary
Lilit V. Dallakyan
In recent years, trying to rediscover its role in the international arena,
Turkey expanded its influence in the Mediterranean basin, the Middle East and the
South Caucasus, using military, political and economic instruments. However, such
persistent and retrospective efforts led to the emergence of new obstacles and
barriers to Turkish progress, the accumulation of which over time can lead to the
formation of an anti-Turkish alliance.
Turkey is trying to use the so-called “bubble effect” in the international
arena. That is, that state, not having enough power politically and economically,
especially without being a superpower, artificially increases its role in the
international arena, trying to extort dividends from its strategic position and
simultaneous military presence in different regions. Obsessed with the ideas of
Pan-Turkism and neo-Ottomanism, Erdogan is ready to send troops to any part of
the world, because by creating zones of instability, he tries to force the great
powers to take him into account and to make concessions on important issues for
him.Taking into account the serious economic problems as the consequences of the
epidemic, the desire of the superpowers not to get involved in an active military
conflicts, the fear of terrorism and refugees issues, Turkey uses the policy of
blackmail to achieve its goals.Turkey has already created zones of instability in a
number of regions; he is waging a geopolitical struggle against the countries in the
same military alliance with him. They can be divided into three main directions:
the Mediterranean Sea, the Middle East and the South Caucasus. At the same time,
it should be noted that these issues are interrelated.
The increase of the element of nationalism in the content of Turkey’s foreign
policy is closely connected with the circumstances of the coalition with the nationalists
in the domestic political life. As a result, the country’s economic situation is
deteriorating day by day, so the time to extort dividends by speaking in the language of
blackmail with the international community is running out. Meanwhile, Erdogan has
plunged Turkey into such complicated deadlocks in domestic politics, foreign policy,
economy and even in civilazional issues, that his resignation will not be a sufficient
condition for coming out of them soon. But the whole problem is that the Turkish
president has intention to do everything to stay in power by the time of the celebration
of the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey in 2023.
In all likelihood, a stubborn adventure of Erdogan is somewhat fueled by
certain Western powers, which, losing their former geopolitical function, see
Turkey as a tool to deepen confrontations on several playing fields and even a
playing card sacrificed for that purpose.
Therefore, on the one hand, they are now strengthening their defense alliance
with Greece, encouraging the formation of an anti-Turkish alliance already underway
in the Eastern Mediterranean, on the other hand, provoke Erdogan’s majestic winds
and directing him to Crimea, Ukraine and especially Central Asia. This wedge removal
policy is the old and also new methodology of Hitler’s pacification, in the role of which
Erdogan is forgiven for threatening to expel the ambassadors of the leading Western
countries. As the role of the Eastern Hitler assumed by Erdogan is not a direct threat to
the West, but to Armenia, Iran, Russia, and in the prospect for China, at some point, the
formation of an anti-Turkish alliance may unite the parties of the global confrontation,
especially the interests of Russia and the USA, as the Russian-Turkish Munich, which
made Armenia and Artsakh a new Czechoslovakia, has already failed on a global level.
Russia and Turkey have no longer territories to concede to each other, so the field of
their possible anti-western deal has been severely narrowed. Instead, the likelihood of a
deal with the West based on the third is superfluous principle against each other
increased, which could lead to the formation of a broad anti-Turkish collaboration
based on a combination of US and Russian interests.