A Comparative Analysis of the Positions of the Global and Regional Actors towards the Second Artsakh War
Lilit V. Dallakyan
The article attempts to identify the causes of the Second Artsakh war, the framework of the potential winners, as well as the obvious losers. Attention is particularly paid to the consequences of the war, the new challenges Armenia is facing, as well as the potential opportunities that have opened up for Armenia. New strategic directions of development are presented; the urgent questions requiring making decisions in external and integral policy, goals and direction of possible diversification in foreign policy are being discussed.
In the new geopolitical situation Armenia is facing new challenges and at the same time is getting new opportunities. If after the Second Artsakh war Armenia found itself squeezed between Russian-Turkish power and decisions were imposed on Yerevan, including over the Zangezur corridor, then with the change of the president in the United States and the escalation of the Russian-American conflict in Ukraine, Armenia had a chance to maneuver. It is already clear that the Ukrainian crisis is part of a large game that began with Putin’s famous Munich speech and the goal of which was to change the centers of power in the geopolitical scene. At the same time, it is obvious that the US has begun to show interest in traditionally Russian spheres of influence. Today, the West, in particular the United States and France, are active not only in Armenian-Azerbaijani, but also in Armenian-Turkish relations, and activated their efforts within the framework of the Minsk Group.
The second Artsakh war showed that for 30 years Armenia did not succeed in either domestic or foreign policy, has no allies in the international arena, did not use the potential of the army without transforming and modernizing it. It is vital for the RA to modernize the army, create a competitive economy, deepen relations with the Diaspora and use its financial, intellectual and lobbying potential, including concerning Armenian question and legitimize the demands of Armenia.
Today, more than ever, the time has come for making important decisions for the country and for changes in strategic thinking, and delay in making these decisions can lead to irreversible consequences and be destructive for the Armenian statehood.