Tag Archives: Turkey

A MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT OF EUROPEAN ARMENOLOGY

Contemporary Armenian studies were enriched in 2024 by a valuable new German-language publication, co-authored by distinguished Armenologists, German Professor Tessa Hofmann and Norwegian Dr. Winfried K. Dallmann. The substantial volume, titled “Das geopolitische Schicksal Armeniens. Vergangenheit und Gegenwart” (“The Geopolitical Fate of Armenia: Past and Present”), is original and highly significant from multiple perspectives. First and foremost, the book presents a comprehensive history of the Armenian people from the earliest times to the present day. Importantly, it provides scholarly and compelling interpretations of issues related to different historical periods, issues on which the perspectives of foreign researchers at times lacked objectivity. Secondly, the work is structured two parts and comprises eighteen chapters. The first part presents the millennia-long history of the Armenian people up to the declaration of independence of the Third Republic of Armenia, while the second part, consisting of eight chapters, covers the events of the following thirty-five years. This testifies to the authors’ recognition of the importance of the modern period, marked by both triumph and tragedy, challenges, victories and defeats, as well as a host of unresolved issues. Central of this era lies the Artsakh conflict and the developments directly related to and surrounding it.

Another important merit of the book is the fact that the narrative is thoroughly mapped out. In other words, when presenting Armenia across different historical periods, the authors include corresponding maps, which make the material more concrete and render the authors’ conclusions and generalizations more compelling and irrefutable.

The work, which offers a comprehensive account not only of Armenia and the Artsakh conflict but also of the history of the Armenian diaspora, serves as a unique encyclopedia or textbook for anyone seeking deep and thorough knowledge of these subjects, as well as of the regional and international developments that have unfolded in these contexts.

THE NEW WORLD ORDER AND THE OLD TURKEY

The current publication reveals the political blackmail techniques employed by R. Erdoğan nearly a decade ago toward the leadership of China, and later Russia, and compares them with Ankara’s recent attempts to exploit the contradictions among global superpowers.

Let us recall that for years, R. Erdoğan had accused China of committing genocide in Xinjiang. However, in 2017, he managed to reach an understanding with Beijing—sacrificing his “Uyghur brothers” in the process. Prior to that, after downing a Russian military aircraft near the Syrian border, Erdoğan secured profitable gas deals with Russia while simultaneously reinforcing “Brother Ilham’s” position in the South Caucasus.

Now, after years of strained relations with the United States, Erdoğan is moving toward legitimizing the genocidal regime of “Brother al-Sharaa” in Syria. At the same time, he is attempting to bargain for a “Zangezur corridor” in exchange for accepting the Russian status of Crimea.

The publication demonstrates that Erdoğan, who has long played on the weaknesses of global powers, is now trying to skillfully take advantage of the clear utilitarianism of the new U.S. administration—something directly related to efforts to contain U.S. national debt and prevent dollar depreciation.

In early 2025, before the Trump administration had clarified its position on U.S.-China relations, Turkey’s president used Ilham Aliyev’s April 22 visit to China to remind official Beijing—on Azerbaijan’s behalf—of the mutual obligations outlined in the 2017 Turkish-Chinese agreement, thereby making Azerbaijan a party to them as well.

Taking into account the inevitable improvement in Russian-American relations and the potential formation of a “Entente-2”, Turkey has sought certain security guarantees from China concerning its territorial integrity. It is now clear that, by drawing Azerbaijan into the game, these guarantees will be used to transform China into a trench-digging instrument in the South Caucasus.

In conclusion, the publication suggests that Turkey’s hopes for a restoration of a bipolar world order currently lack serious foundations, as today’s global competition revolves not around quantity, but around qualitative resources—the majority of which remain under U.S. control. Moreover, Turkey’s multi-vector games have already begun to raise concerns among its patron, the United Kingdom. Hence, having been informed in advance about the upcoming resignation of his old friend—the head of British intelligence Richard Moore—Erdoğan began taking steps toward resolving the Kurdish issue as early as the end of last year.

TRANSFORMATION OF TURKEY’S KURDISH POLICY IN 2024

The next Arab-Israeli conflict, which started after the terrorist attack against Israel carried out by the Hamas organization on October 7, 2023, in which Iran also joined, threatens to turn into a big regional war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan predictably accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians and threatened that one day Turkish troops would enter Israel the same way they entered Libya and Karabakh. And his foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, compared Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Adolf Hitler. Turkish-Israeli relations have never been so strained, and Israel has lost its only regional Muslim ally, joining the Arab-Iranian anti-Israel camp. However, this policy of the Turkish president completely frees Israel’s hands to create a Kurdish state in the middle of the Middle East, which will be a pawn in the hands of Israel and the US, depending equally on Iran, Syria, Iraq and Turkey.

The Turkish elite is aware of all this, which is very well aware that Israel, with the help of the United States, is able to use the Kurds to create serious threats to Turkish statehood, especially since Erdogan has not managed to solve the Kurdish issue both inside the country and abroad in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the number of pro-Kurdish deputies increases after each parliamentary election in the National Assembly, and the number of Kurdish mayors increases after each local government election. As for the Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistans, the plans to conquer them in a very short time and suppress the Kurdish liberation movement failed, and Turkish troops continue to suffer losses in those countries for 8 years, causing an economic, social and political crisis in the country. But the worst thing for Erdogan is that he cannot withdraw Turkish troops from those countries, because the Kurds will immediately create an independent state in those territories, which is already the most serious threat to Turkish statehood, because if the power in the Iraqi Kurdish autonomy belongs to Erdogan’s ally Barzani clan, then the master of the situation in Syrian Kurdistan is the structure created by the Kurdish Workers’ Party and under its influence, the Northern Syrian Federal Democracy (SDF). And now, most likely with information that the Israelis will launch the Kurdish issue, Erdogan and his political allies are forced to make concessions, even promising to discuss the issue of Abdullah Ocalan’s release if he calls on his party members to lay down their arms and self-disband. Although Ocalan is considered the president of the PKK, the real power there belongs to other members of the party, who of course will not agree to lay down their arms, because as they believe, another Arab-Israeli conflict, in which Iran is also involved, is a real possibility provides an opportunity to create an independent Kurdish state. In order to prevent all this, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2023-2024 had to go to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to restore the relations he ruined and bring investments to Turkey, and he is also making unsuccessful attempts to reconcile with Syrian President Bashar Assad, most likely in order to create a united front against the Kurds. On the other hand, he is trying to prevent the Kurds from joint actions with Israel, realizing that this union can become a serious threat to Turkey.

The attack of November 27, 2024 and the subsequent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government was the only logical solution to Erdogan’s Kurdish policy in Syria. By effectively extending his influence in Syria and bringing forces loyal to him to power, Erdogan has gained an insurmountable advantage over the Kurds, which allows him to first finally create a 30-kilometer buffer zone, and then, together with Syrian government forces, drown the Kurdish movement in blood.